About the scenarios
The scenarios are intended to project the long-term energy demand and supply for the drafting of ENTSO-E’s and ENTSOG’s Ten-Year Network Development Plans within the context of the ongoing energy transition. They are designed in such a way that they specifically explore those uncertainties which are relevant for gas and electricity infrastructure development. As such, they primarily focus on aspects which determine the infrastructure utilisation. Furthermore, the scenarios draw extensively on the current European political and economic consensus and attempt to follow a logical trajectory to achieve future energy and climate targets.
The scenarios should provide the user with insights into the possible energy system of the future and the role of electricity and gaseous carriers in this energy system as well as the effects of changes in supply and demand on the energy system. The European and global perspectives of these scenarios enable the user to track supply and demand developments geographically as well as temporally, and to gain greater insight into the challenges energy infrastructure planning is facing during the energy transition.
Regulation (EU) 2022/869 requires that ENTSOG and ENTSO-E jointly develop scenarios for the future European energy system in the context of their respective Ten-Year Network Development Plans (TYNDPs). According to the Regulation, these “scenarios are fully in line with the energy efficiency first principle and with the Union’s 2030 targets for energy and climate and its 2050 climate neutrality objective and shall take into account the latest available Commission scenarios, as well as, when relevant, the national energy and climate plans (‘NECPs’)”.
ACER’s “Framework Guidelines for the joint TYNDP scenarios to be developed by ENTSO for Electricity and ENTSO for Gas” (‘TYNDP Scenarios Guideline’) provides criteria for a transparent, non-discriminatory and robust development of scenarios in the context of energy networks development, as well as guidance on alignment with the energy efficiency first principle and with the Union’s 2030 targets for energy and climate and its 2050 climate neutrality objective.
ENTSO-E’s 10-year network development plan (TYNDP) is the pan-European electricity infrastructure development plan. It provides a wide European vision of the future power system and investigates how power links and storage can be used to make the energy transition happen in a cost-effective and secure way. It links, supports, and complements national grid development plans. For more information, visit tyndp.entsoe.eu.
The Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) provides an overview of the European gas infrastructure and its future developments, and it maps the integrated gas network according to a range of development scenarios. The TYNDP also includes a European supply adequacy outlook and an assessment of the network resiliency. Gas Regional Investment Plans (GRIPs) led by TSOs with ENTSOG assistance complement the TYNDP by focusing on issues of particular regional importance. EU Gas Regulation (EC) 715/2009 requires ENTSOG to develop the TYNDP on a biennial basis.