TYNDP Scenarios

27 February 2025

ENTSO-E and ENTSOG release Innovation Roadmap for TYNDP Scenarios

On 27 February 2025 ENTSO-E and ENTSOG have released the Innovation Roadmap for TYNDP Scenarios. The Roadmap lists potential improvements to the scenario building process, proposed by TSOs, by the Scenarios Stakeholder Reference Group and by the scenario-building experts at ENTSO-E and ENTSOG. The Roadmap emphasizes the need for consistency between successive TYNDP cycles while accommodating emerging trends and expectations. Improvements in each cycle will be guided by prior evaluations and stakeholder feedback.  

The Roadmap includes a review of the innovations that were not implemented during the 2024 cycle, essential model fixes for improving the TYNDP 2024 model, and newly proposed innovations for the TYNDP 2026 scenario cycle. Additionally, this report lists further requirements from the Scenarios Stakeholder Reference Group, electricity and gas TSOs, and other stakeholders to complement and prioritize innovations for future cycles (TYNDP 2028 and TYNDP 2030).

Innovations in TYNDP 2026 Scenarios

The TYNDP 2026 cycle will be the first to fully comply with the ACER Framework Guideline, requiring already the implementation of several innovations in the scenario development approach. Given the compressed timeline for this cycle, there is a need to prioritize toolchain enhancements to ensure the timely development of scenarios. Therefore for 2026 the focus will be on addressing critical model issues identified thanks to stakeholder feedback on 2024 Scenarios, to ensure a high-quality baseline model.

Consultation and next steps

The Innovation Roadmap will be released for consultation along with the 2026 input parameters at the end of Q2 2025. Stakeholders feedback will be considered to further prioritize innovations for TYNDP 2028 and future scenarios cycles. ENTSO-E and ENTSOG will release an updated version of the Roadmap in early 2026.

19 February 2025

ENTSO-E & ENTSOG TYNDP 2026 Scenarios Process Update & Innovation Roadmap Webinar

All interested stakeholders are invited to participate at the ENTSO-E & ENTSOG TYNDP 2026 Scenarios Process Update & Innovation Roadmap Webinar, which will take place on 06 March 2025, from 10:00 to 12:00 am CET.

The goal of this webinar is to provide external stakeholders updated information on the latest status of the 2026 TYNDP Scenarios. We will present the updated timeline for scenario activities, give an intermediate update about the innovations to be implemented in the 2026 cycle, and prepare stakeholders for the upcoming stakeholder activities including the public consultation & workshop on the input parameters. The webinar will also feature a presentation on the Scenarios Innovation Roadmap, which will be published shortly. Stakeholders are welcome to ask the Scenario Building Team questions and provide feedback on the 2026 TYNDP Scenarios process.

The detailed agenda will be communicated shortly.

Date: 06 March 2025
Time: 10:00 – 12:00 CET
Registration: please register here

For further information about the event, please contact scenarios@entsos-tyndp-scenarios.eu

19 July 2024

Join our webinars to stay informed on the 2026 scenarios development

ENTO-E and ENTSOG will organise webinars at key steps of the project timeline, during the entire 2026 scenarios development process. The exact date, time and registration details of each webinar will be announced at the latest 2 weeks in advance.

• February 2025: Webinar on the state of play of the scenarios development process, innovation roadmap and scenarios development methodology
• May 2025, at the start of the public consultation on input parameters and methodologies: Webinar to present the material being consulted and answer stakeholders questions (Note: this webinar comes in addition to a workshop & roundtables)

The above timings are subject to changes, to adjust to evolutions of the scenarios development timeline.

17 July 2024

Updated 2026 Scenarios Stakeholder engagement plan now available

A preliminary version of the 2026 Scenarios Stakeholder engagement plan was released on 12 June 2024. Based on the feedback received at the kick-off workshop and on discussions held with the Stakeholders Reference Group, ENTSO-E and ENTSOG release today an updated version of the engagement plan.

The Stakeholder engagement plan provides an overview of all planned activities to involve and inform stakeholders in the 2026 scenarios cycle. It is meant to be a living document, to be reviewed and potentially updated to adjust to possible evolutions of the scenarios development timeline.

The updates include the clarification of the structure of the document, information on the material that will be made available to stakeholders after public workshops, and specifications on the guidance that will be available to stakeholders at the launch of the public consultation and on the information available after the consultation has closed.

In addition to the engagement plan, a detailed scenario development timeline will be made available shortly.

9 July 2024

Slides and recording of kick-off workshop now available

ENTSO-E and ENTSOG thank all stakeholders who took part in the workshop on the 2024 and 2026 TYNDP scenario processes, held on 4 July in Brussels.

The European Commission, the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER), the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change and the Stakeholders’ Reference Group (SRG) provided their comments on the 2024 scenario work and presented their expectations on the upcoming 2026 cycle.

Our scenario experts presented the initial orientations for the 2026 Scenarios. Following the recent approval of the Hydrogen and Decarbonised Gas Market Package, we welcomed the presence of pre-ENNOH representatives who will be involved in the 2026 cycle alongside ENTSO-E and ENTSOG.

The following documents are now available online:

4 June 2024

INVITATION: Workshop – Closing of the 2024 and kick-off of the 2026 TYNDP Scenarios cycle

ENTSO-E and ENTSOG invite all interested stakeholders to take part in a public workshop on the 2024 and 2026 Scenarios. The workshop will take place on 4 July, from 10.00 to 15.30.

After a presentation of the main features of the 2024 scenarios published on 22 May 2024, ENTSO-E and ENTSOG will outline plans for the 2026 Scenarios, including an overview of the scenario-building process and of the possibilities for stakeholders to contribute to the process in the two years ahead. ENTSO-E and ENTSOG will also present initial orientations for the storylines of the 2026 Scenarios. The afternoon session will feature discussions with attendees on the storylines framework, including on key differentiation parameters.

The stakeholders’ engagement plan for the 2026 Scenarios will be made publicly available ahead of the workshop.

22 May 2024

ENTSO-E and ENTSOG release their joint Draft Scenarios for TYNDP 2024

ENTSO-E and ENTSOG have released today their draft joint Scenarios, which will be the basis for the electricity and gas Ten-Year Network Development Plans (TYNDPs) 2024. These joint electricity, hydrogen and natural gas Scenarios are the fourth of their kind, building upon the successive scenario cycle since the first joint scenarios in 2018.

Scenarios evaluate the interactions between the electricity and gas systems, vital to delivering the best assessment of the infrastructure from an integrated system perspective. Supply and demand data collected from both gas and electricity TSOs are used to build ‘National Trends’, the central policy-based scenario, reflecting Member States’ energy and climate policies and recognising EU climate targets. The ‘Global Ambition’ and ‘Distributed Energy’ scenarios are developed as full energy scenarios (not limited to gas and electricity) and are built in line with the efforts of the EU-27 to reduce GHG emissions to 55% by 2030 and to net-zero by 2050.

12 January 2024

ENTSO-E and ENTSOG publish the summary report of the public consultation feedback on the 2024 scenarios input data and methodology

With the objective to improve the quantification of underlying assumptions for the Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) 2024 scenarios, ENTSO-E and ENTSOG conducted a public consultation on TYNDP 2024 Scenarios Input Parameters from 4 July to 8 August 2023. The summary report (download PDF) provides an overview of the feedback received and explains how ENTSO-E and ENTSOG integrated stakeholders’ comments when finalising the input data and methodology.

The public consultation addressed the following key topics:

• Data consistency with respect to the storylines of the DA & GA Scenarios;
• Technology costs and energy prices;
• Modelling methodologies used;
• Technology-specific assumptions; and
• Potential improvements for future TYNDP Scenarios editions. In total, 30 stakeholders from diverse sectors engaged in the public consultation.

In addition to the public consultation, ENTSO-E and ENTSOG jointly organised a hybrid workshop and stakeholder roundtables on 13 July 2023. In this event, stakeholders were prompted to share their views and discuss key topics and datasets with the Scenario Building Team. The presentation of the webinars, in addition to the summaries of the stakeholder roundtable, are available on the TYNDP 2024 Scenarios Website.

Updated demand input data after the public consultation is also available here (download Excel), as well as all stakeholders feedback received (download Excel).